Περί του νέου Ιρανού Supreme leader. Πρώτα αυτά που είπε ο ίδιος χθες, μετά αυτά που λέει ένα ανώνυμο υψηλόβαθμο στέλεχος των κρατικών μέσων ενημέρωσης του Ιράν για αυτόν στο New Left Review…
“Furthermore, the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be utilised.
“Studies have been conducted regarding opening other fronts where the enemy has minimal experience and where it would be highly vulnerable. Should the war continue, activation of such fronts will be carried out based on certain interests.
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revenge
martyrdom
revenge
martyrdom
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“In any case, we will extract reparations from the enemy; should they refuse, we shall seize from their assets as we deem fit, and if that is not possible, we shall destroy an equivalent amount of their assets.
“The fifth part of my speech addresses leaders in certain regional countries. We share borders with 15 countries and have always wanted, and still want warm relations with them. But for years, the enemy has been establishing military and financial bases in some of these countries to secure its dominance over the region.
“In the recent assault, some of these military bases were utilised; naturally, as we had clearly warned in advance, and without committing any act of aggression against those regional countries themselves, we have only targeted the US bases there. After this, we will have no choice but to continue this course of action. Though, we remain committed to the necessity of friendship with our neighbors.
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How has his [Mojtaba Khamenei’s] appointment been received?
Many ordinary Iranians, especially the religious, see him as a very good replacement for his father. They feel vindicated by the appointment and see it as a sign of victory. But for sure, there are divisions. The upper classes may not approve of him for several reasons. First, his appointment might mean the continuation of his father’s hardline policies. Some see it as an engineered outcome, in the works not just over the past weeks but for years. For some, it recalls the dynastic tradition present before the revolution – sons taking the place of their fathers. These anxieties exist and will continue to.
There are also reports he has been injured. They haven’t indicated how, whether in the first day’s strike on the compound of the Supreme Leader or in a later attack, but some media are calling him ‘a veteran of the Ramadan War’, as the ongoing war is now being called. Many are waiting to see whether he has recorded a speech that will be aired on state TV in the coming days. I personally think that he probably hasn’t, and is waiting to see what course events take before he addresses the nation. When he does, his words will likely be taken as an indication of what course Iran should follow over the coming months, as was the tradition with the former leader.
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He was personally involved in important decisions, and it is believed that he was responsible for the tough actions that were taken to silence protesters and opposition leaders. The same sources indicated that Mojtaba Khamenei was working closely with a vast network of hardliners, key figures in the IRGC, the military and other powerful sectors.
My sense is that he could take one of two courses: he could become tougher than his father, more radical, as in the scenario that we have seen in North Korea, for example, and continue to defy America; or he could pursue an opening to the world. There are some signs that the latter scenario is more plausible. Larijani gave a short interview to state TV on Sunday night. After congratulating Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment he told the audience that the new Supreme Leader’s tenure will be a time of economic prosperity and expansion, suggesting a softer foreign policy line, at least at the start. Other signs point in the same direction. The most important of these is that Iran’s economic situation is very, very fragile due to sanctions. Iran has no other option but to repair its relations with the West and with the US, despite all the resistance it has shown, and may look to the lifting of sanctions to allow the country to export more oil and attract investment.
